Government’s RET modelling leaks on twitter, proves correlation between renewables and cheap electricity  

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In the most significant development to date, it has been revealed that the government’s own data presented to the renewable energy target (RET) review board illustrating a correlation between the deployment of renewable energy and cheaper electricity beyond the year 2020.

The leak followed polls showing that 72% of Australians want to see the RET retained or expanded to include further renewable investment.

Although the government refused to publicly release the data (update: following widespread coverage of the slides, the submission has now been released), a number of key slides were leaked on twitter showing various modelling options prepared for the board by consulting firm ACIL Allen.

ACIL Allen’s figures are in keeping with other modelling conducted by ROAM Consulting, Schneider Electric, Sinclair Knight Merz, Intelligent Energy Systems and Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Figures that contradict ACIL Allen’s report come from invested interests, like BAEconomics who’se Managing Director Dr Brian Fisher sits on the RET review board.

Australian Solar Council’s chief executive John Grimes told Fairfax media, “It kills off their efforts to repeal the RET […] The repeal case is the most expensive, and the one with the most renewables deployed – the RET target of 30 per cent by 2030 – ends ups being the cheapest for consumers.”

Clean Energy Council Policy Director Russell Marsh claimed, “It shows that the target can be met by the end of the decade, and it also shows that cutting the RET would result in higher power bills.”

One slide (shown below) illustrates various RET models and their influence on electricity prices between now and 2030.

Data courtesy of Michael Mazengarb (@kincuri) and reconstructed by Business Spectator.

Data courtesy of Michael Mazengarb (@kincuri) and reconstructed by Business Spectator.

No change – These figures suggest no change to the current target of 41,000 GWh of renewable energy by 2020. By 2020 the scheme will deliver annual savings of more than $50 on the average household cost of electricity.

Frozen – Current renewable projects are funded with no support for any future investment. Average households are worse off and will pay more for electricity beyond 2030.

Real 20% – Due to falling energy demand, the current 41,000 GWh target will consist of more than 20% of required electricity by the end of the decade. A revised figure would still provide significant price relief beyond 2020 reaching a $75 reduction annually by 2030.

Real 30% – Revising the target to achieve 30% of our electricity requirements by 2030 (53,000 GWh) provides even further relief representing more than $150 reduction annually by 2030.

It’s clear from these numbers that as we invest in renewables we all enjoy more affordable electricity. This is a blow to Prime Minister Tony Abbott, who fiercely opposed to the carbon tax because it increased the cost of living for average Australian families.

Mr Abbott has frequently claimed that the RET places “not insignificant” pressure on the price of electricity, but as the data makes clear renewables offer short term pain for considerable long term gain.

Just how we can achieve the target without the assistance of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, the One Million Solar Roofs programme, the Climate Commission, the Climate Change Authority and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation remains to be seen.